UFC 223: Betting Odds and Pick (4.4.2018)
The UFC is BACK this Saturday for UFC 223 with two titles on the line, so Justin and I are gonna get right down to business and rip through our picks for the main card. Let’s start at the top with Habib Nu-Ro-go-meh-dof who books have as a favorite in the -550 range over late replacements Max Holloway. This isn’t one I needed to think very long about, because I’m jumping all over the betting value and grabbing Holloway at +375. Holloway will be the best fighter Habib has ever fought and at +375, that is an absolute bargain. Also, let’s not forget we’ve seen some late-replacements pull-off big upsets in high-profile fights in recent years, and I think we’ll see it again.
Who do you like? Obviously, I like Khabib. If Holloway wins, I wouldn’t be completely shocked but it’s on 6 days notice, a tough weight cut and he doesn’t offer the same offense from his back as Ferguson.
Khabib will get it to the mat and he will grind it out. Next up, a rematch for the women’s strawweight title and I’m taking the underdog champ Rose Namajunas to once again defeat Joanna Yo-Han-J-Chick. If I’ve learned anything from betting on the UFC the past few years, it’s if you see a champion at plus-money, it’s essentially been free money, so I’ll look to cash-in in what’s proven to be a very profitable spot. Underdog champions are 5-1 in their last six in the spot – and the lose was overturned thanks to Jon Jones. Rose is more well-rounded, JJ is elite striking.
Gun to my head, im taking Rose but I sure as hell am not betting on this. Streaking featherweight Calvin Kattar who hasn’t lost since 2010 takes on Renato Moy-cano, and guess what? I’m taking another underdog with Moy-cano at +110. Sure, Kattar’s on a nice streak, but he’s not exactly beating up on the class of the featherweight division, and I think we’ve got another great value bet with Moy-cano who’s only pro loss came vs Brian Ortega. Big fan of both guys – but I think Kattar does his best work when he dictates the terms of the attack. Moicano is an excellent counter striker who should win a close one.
Next is a super sexy lightweight showdown between Anthony Pettis and Michael Chisea and no messing around, I’m taking Chisea at -135 and think he should be a lot closer to -200. We’ve seen Pettis basically get his ass kicked a few times over the last few years, and I think it happens again. Yeah – Pettis sort of sucks now that people realize you can just wrestle him and he next to no defense. Chiesa, takes it.
Finally, we’ll wrap it up with a lightweight fight between Paul Felder and Al Iaquinta that has hardcore fans foaming at the mouth. Iaquinta has won five straight fights with four of those coming by stoppage and I like him to add another W to his resume, but this time, by decision which can be had at +300. This one feels like a coin toss – Iaquinta would be wise to rely more on his grappling but I think Felder’s timing in the striking game makes that a little too difficult for the New Yorker. I lean the Irish Dragon in a very tight bout.
Alright, that does it for our UFC 223 betting preview, but for more coverage of the stacked card Justin will have you set-up with in-depth analysis of all the top fights, along with all the top betting trends and stats. Find it all at OddsShark.com, the pound-for-pound king of sports betting news!